At the dawn of the 21st century America is facing a most urgent decision – what to do about climate change. We have before us two basic choices – (1) continuing with business-as-usual or (2) transforming our economy for the future. The fundamental priorities that guide this decision remind me of something called the Marshmallow Test.
The Marshmallow Test is an unusual exercise for testing children that has become regarded as a strong predictor of a child’s future success in school and in life. Originally conducted by Stanford psychology professor Walter Mischel in the late 1960’s, the Marshmallow Test presents a 4 year-old with a choice: he can have one marshmallow now, or two marshmallows in a short while. Mischel was interested in learning what enabled some young children and not others to forego immediate gratification in favor of a larger desired but delayed reward. What is most interesting was the follow-up years later. According to a study in 1990, the marshmallow test was more predictive than IQ of future SAT score.
Discipline and Trust
Researchers believe that the marshmallow test is an indicator of two important characteristics for future success: discipline and trust - the discipline to defer gratification in the present and the trust that a pledge of greater reward in the future will be fulfilled.
In the face of the daunting problem of climate change, is America reacting in a business-as-usual manner, satisfying our immediate needs, and grabbing the marshmallow before us? Or are we showing discipline by carefully considering the implications our current decisions have on the future, and trusting that we can influence that future to our greater benefit?
Discipline
Addressing climate change requires discipline - the discipline to maintain constancy of purpose, to invest in the future, and to understand the true nature of our problems. Maintaining constancy of purpose means having a sustained focus on our long-term problems even as their short-term symptoms rise and abate. That means we need an energy strategy not based on the spot price of oil, which sees us running to fuel efficient cars and mass transit only when oil spikes, and then abandoning them after it falls. The discipline to invest in the future means not only taking advantage of win-win investments with short-term returns like energy efficiency, but choosing investments that align our actions to our overall aims and that take into account long-term consequences even if the payback may be farther out than five years. Understanding the true nature of our problems means taking a systems view and seeing those problems not in isolation, but as interconnected and interdependent with other issues. Seemingly disparate events such as rising CO2 levels, China’s emergence as a renewable energy superpower, and increasing threats from climate-stressed failed states are all interlinked with American economic, social and environmental security. Understanding this and figuring out what to do takes measured and thoughtful discipline.
Trust
If America is to pass the Marshmallow Test we have to restore trust in our institutions – in government, in business, and in the sciences. U.S. government gridlock on climate change is exacerbated by the lack of trust between the two parties which feeds into a public confusion about the urgency of the problem. Lack of trust in the leaders of global finance is hurting the prospect for a carbon market in the U.S. Even if the economics make sense, the vision of Wall Street enriching itself from the climate crisis is almost too much for Main Street to bear. And sowing lack of trust in the underlying science is perhaps the best way to diminish the sense of urgency needed to address a public hazard whether it be climate change or cigarette smoking. Today’s whipped-up email “scandals” over climate science serve the same intention as found in a Brown and Williamson Tobacco Company memo from the 1960’s. It stated, “Doubt is our product.”
Does America Want to Pass the Marshmallow Test?
Imagine America as that 4-year-old child facing a choice: a sure, reliable and comforting marshmallow right now, or the potential for even greater marshmallow opportunity if we adjust our behavior. Which are we going to chose?
The one-marshmallow-right-now means business-as-usual i.e. continuing to base our economy on fossil fuels echoed by the mantra “drill-baby-drill.” It means avoiding expensive incentives for new forms of energy generation. It means continuing to borrow from China, in order to pay the Middle East so we can drive to work. It means putting no price on carbon so that energy in the short-term remains the cheapest in the industrialized world. And it means ignoring the science and continuing to put CO2 into the earth’s atmosphere, which frankly will not present serious problems for most of us in the next few years. Like that 4-year-old scarfing down that single marshmallow, we will be just fine - in the short-term.
But if we listen to those who have dedicated their lives to the study of these issues - if we trust the most informed of us – there is a significant probability that the future will be either much better than the present or disastrously worse depending on the choices we make now. Other countries are setting examples. Spain is making huge investments in renewable energy and high speed rail. Japan continues to make great progress with energy efficiency. Denmark has repowered entire communities with renewable energy. Germany and China are becoming world leaders in the solar and wind technology. And Abu Dhabi is building the world’s first completely self-sustaining zero-carbon city called Masdar. These countries are displaying the discipline to adjust current practices with the trust that there will be a long-term benefit. Like the 4-year-old who defers eating the single marshmallow for a more beneficial result in the future, these countries are all adjusting current practices to build economies that will bring more opportunity for even more people. They realize that building a sustainable economy today is key to leading the global economy of tomorrow.
The Marshmallow Test is telling us we need to be disciplined in our decision-making and we need to trust in each other. But what it is really saying is “Think about the future.” When following up on 4-year-olds many years later, those who waited for the second marshmallow were found to have scored 210 points higher on SATs than those who grabbed the first; they were also in general more successful and better adjusted to the challenges of life. The decisions made by this generation in this new decade will shape the future in ways more profound than perhaps any before us. America must pass the Marshmallow Test, because if we are not about the future, what are we about?
