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Monday, November 30, 2009
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Results as Consequences ...
Recently I gave up and hired an organizational expert to help me clean up my disorderly home-office space. In working for an entire day with Annette D’Agastini of Manhattan Organizing I realized something – it struck me like a thunder bolt. What I thought I needed was a cleaned-up office space, but what I really needed was a system.
Hiring Annette was not like hiring a cleaning service for my office. If the aim is a clean office, any cleaning service will do. Yet within days the same unmanageable mess is back again. Annette’s aim however is not to clean your office. She uses the phrase “Give a man a fish and feed him for a day, but teach him to fish and he can feed himself for life.” Developing a system by which one can manage one’s books, magazines, mail, paperwork – the information flow of an office – is what Annette teaches, and in doing that she helps her clients create a framework the consequence of which is an orderly and neat office environment - and one that is sustainable.
This idea of being mindful that results are always the consequences of system or process has very wide application. We often talk about means vs. ends, but as someone rightly pointed out "Means are ends in the making." It’s as true in the arts (you get to Carnegie Hall through a system - practice, practice, practice), as it is in mental health (in Man’s Search for Meaning Viktor Frankl said that happiness can not be pursued, it must ensue from a life built of meaningful activity), as it is in business (profit is the consequence rather than the aim of a well manage enterprise.)
One of the most pressing global problems of the 21st century is the threat of human-induced climate change. Like the messy office, the earth’s atmosphere with way too much greenhouse gas is not just a problem but a consequence. The earth’s natural systems work one way, but the global economy is often not aligned with those workings - climate change being the most urgent symptom of that lack of alignment. So the sustainable solution to climate change is not so much about sequestering carbon underground or putting heat shields in the atmosphere (this is like shoving the excess office papers under the rug.) The sustainable long-term solution to climate change is to have a global economic system that runs as if it is an interdependent part of the Earth’s natural systems. We need to think about aligning the economy with how the earth works rather than aligning the earth to how the economy works. The more we plan and execute economic development from a systems perspective, the more likely the consequence will be a sustainable economy.
To paraphrase Viktor Frankl, a sustainable economy can not be pursued, it must ensue.
By the way, here’s how my sustainably neat home-office turned out:
Monday, November 9, 2009
SuperFreakonomics or Our Choice
Two books have come out recently that address solutions to anthropogenic climate change. SuperFreakonomics by Steve D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner is the sequel to the authors’ multi-million selling Freakonomics whose aim was to teach us that everything can be understood if we just look at the numbers. Our Choice by Al Gore is the sequel to his multi-million selling An Inconvenient Truth whose aim was to teach us that global warming was a much more urgent problem than we had realized.
I could never attempt a better take on SuperFreakonomics than Elizabeth Kolbert’s review in the New Yorker this week entitled “Hosed .” Also an open letter to Steve Levitt from Dr. Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, a professor of geophysics at the University of Chicago provides a critique of one argument presented in SuperFreak that is worth reading. As far as Gore’s book is concerned, Newsweek has put him on their cover this week with the title “The Thinking Man’s Thinking Man.” Their review of Our Choice is downright glowing – especially as it relates to the work Gore did to gather the information for the book and his knowledge of minutia related to climate change science and engineering issues around renewable energy.
Ultimately the message of SuperFreak is that we can best address climate change through geoengineering – large planet-wide initiatives to address the symptoms of climate change. Geoengineering is about changing the planet to align with human needs. Gore on the other hand does not believe geoengineering is the right approach. “We are already involved in a massive, unplanned planetary experiment,” he writes. “We should not begin yet another planetary experiment in the hope that it will somehow magically cancel out the effects of the one we already have.”
From my perspective, climate change is the consequence of a misalignment between two very powerful systems – the earth and the global economy. A system is a grouping of interrelated and interdependent components in the service of an aim. Every component within a given system must in some way align to the aim of the overall system. The consequences of misalignment are sub-optimization, decay and the potential destruction of the system. In the case of climate change, the system is the earth and embedded within that system is a powerful sub-system called the global economy. Climate change is a symptom of the lack of alignment between the global economy and the earth of which it is a part and on which it completely depends.
Instead of aligning the global economy to how the earth works, geoengineering tweaks the earth to accomodate the global economy. For example one geoengineering solution to climate change is to change the composition of the earth's atmosphere by adding more SO2 in order to bring down global temperatures. But such action only further increases the variation in the system - acidifying the oceans and adversely affecting weather systems. It doesn't stop the increase in CO2 which means more and more SO2 will be needed, bringing more and more acidification, and more and more variation and instability within the system.
A long-term solution to climate change will only come from an appreciation for the earth and the global economy as one system. Understanding nature’s example of self-organization, interdependence and diversity will provide the basis for solutions. Nature is information intense and energy efficient and there are great opportunities for the global economy to move in this direction. Nature gets its current energy income from the sun – and the global economy has underutilized this resource – enough solar energy hits the earth's surface every hour to power the entire economy for a year. Nature sees waste from one process as a resource for another – this is also an important lesson for a 9-billion member (by 2050) human economy to learn.
SuperFreak is written by an economist who breaks things apart and starts measuring everything hoping to find answers in the disparate pieces. Our Choice is written by someone who has consulted with hundreds of the world's experts on science and engineering in addressing this one problem (the book's dedication is four pages long single-spaced.) While much can be learned by breaking things apart as economists do, what is lost is the system-ness of what is being studied. Addressing climate change is all about an appreciation for system-ness. On that basis, Our Choice is a well thought out resource for addressing climate change while SuperFreakonomics is way out of alignment.
I could never attempt a better take on SuperFreakonomics than Elizabeth Kolbert’s review in the New Yorker this week entitled “Hosed .” Also an open letter to Steve Levitt from Dr. Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, a professor of geophysics at the University of Chicago provides a critique of one argument presented in SuperFreak that is worth reading. As far as Gore’s book is concerned, Newsweek has put him on their cover this week with the title “The Thinking Man’s Thinking Man.” Their review of Our Choice is downright glowing – especially as it relates to the work Gore did to gather the information for the book and his knowledge of minutia related to climate change science and engineering issues around renewable energy.
Ultimately the message of SuperFreak is that we can best address climate change through geoengineering – large planet-wide initiatives to address the symptoms of climate change. Geoengineering is about changing the planet to align with human needs. Gore on the other hand does not believe geoengineering is the right approach. “We are already involved in a massive, unplanned planetary experiment,” he writes. “We should not begin yet another planetary experiment in the hope that it will somehow magically cancel out the effects of the one we already have.”
From my perspective, climate change is the consequence of a misalignment between two very powerful systems – the earth and the global economy. A system is a grouping of interrelated and interdependent components in the service of an aim. Every component within a given system must in some way align to the aim of the overall system. The consequences of misalignment are sub-optimization, decay and the potential destruction of the system. In the case of climate change, the system is the earth and embedded within that system is a powerful sub-system called the global economy. Climate change is a symptom of the lack of alignment between the global economy and the earth of which it is a part and on which it completely depends.
Instead of aligning the global economy to how the earth works, geoengineering tweaks the earth to accomodate the global economy. For example one geoengineering solution to climate change is to change the composition of the earth's atmosphere by adding more SO2 in order to bring down global temperatures. But such action only further increases the variation in the system - acidifying the oceans and adversely affecting weather systems. It doesn't stop the increase in CO2 which means more and more SO2 will be needed, bringing more and more acidification, and more and more variation and instability within the system.
A long-term solution to climate change will only come from an appreciation for the earth and the global economy as one system. Understanding nature’s example of self-organization, interdependence and diversity will provide the basis for solutions. Nature is information intense and energy efficient and there are great opportunities for the global economy to move in this direction. Nature gets its current energy income from the sun – and the global economy has underutilized this resource – enough solar energy hits the earth's surface every hour to power the entire economy for a year. Nature sees waste from one process as a resource for another – this is also an important lesson for a 9-billion member (by 2050) human economy to learn.
SuperFreak is written by an economist who breaks things apart and starts measuring everything hoping to find answers in the disparate pieces. Our Choice is written by someone who has consulted with hundreds of the world's experts on science and engineering in addressing this one problem (the book's dedication is four pages long single-spaced.) While much can be learned by breaking things apart as economists do, what is lost is the system-ness of what is being studied. Addressing climate change is all about an appreciation for system-ness. On that basis, Our Choice is a well thought out resource for addressing climate change while SuperFreakonomics is way out of alignment.
Monday, November 2, 2009
The Warning
For any of those who missed it, a few weeks back the PBS news magazine Frontline ran a fascinating yet disturbing report on how a warning was ignored about the dangers of unregulated OTC derivatives markets, markets eventually made infamous for the toxic assets which nearly brought down the global financial system.
The report told the story of one Brooksley Born, an accomplished lawyer and the head of the CFTC (Commodities and Futures Trading Commission) under President Clinton. Born became very concerned about the danger of unregulated derivatives markets after incidents like the Banker’s Trust derivatives fiasco of the early ‘90s which showed how opaque these markets were - indeed they were referred to as a black box. Born thought it a good idea to open the box and peer in with a flashlight to see what was going on. As the head of the CFTC, she had the authority to act on derivatives regulation - authority that only Congress could take away. Treasury Secretary Rubin, Fed Chairman Greenspan, and SEC Chairman Levitt became so concerned that Born was going to act on her authority that they called for hearings to strip the CFTC Chair of that authority. They hauled Born in front of the Senate Finance Committee where she was put through the ringer. “What are you trying to protect?” she was asked over and over again as Rubin, Greenspan, Levitt and Larry Summers looked on. She replied “We are trying to protect the money of the American public.”
A decade later the money of the American public put at risk by unregulated derivatives would be on the order of trillions of dollars.
Brooksley Born used reasoned arguments to convey the urgent need for derivatives regulation. She was stopped by those who felt their financial interests being threatened.
And isn’t that exactly what’s been going on for the last 30 years around the issue of climate change? For decades scientists and others have been issuing warning after warning, with ever increasing urgency - and the response from most politicians has been “Where’s the risk? I don’t see any problem.” And the reason for inaction is the same – financial interest.
Rubin, Greenspan and Summers have never admitted error in the Born affair. But Arthur Levitt has spoken out. He admits he was swayed by Rubin and Greenspan. “I was told she was irascible difficult, stubborn and unreasonable.” He now calls Born one of the finest public servants he has ever come to know, and he regrets his actions against her. “I should have acted differently. I could have made a difference.”
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